We’d Fight And Never Lose.

Those were the days, my friends…..

Exciting News

Recently, I’ve been in discussions with the Huddersfield Examiner about blogging for them, obviously around some of the things I work on here. Today my first post on their new blog went live, which is tremendously exciting for me.

I don’t really know what I’ll do with this blog now I’m writing on the Examiner one; maybe keep this aside for the extremely narrow stats. I guess we’ll see how things develop. Either way.

http://t.co/9IVAPdA

9 – Answers – Post 39

Anton Robinson is number 9, after.

Brentford - 1995 - Kevin Dearden (loan), Paul Stephenson (coach)
Bristol R - 1995 - Marcus Stewart, Marcus Browning
Lincoln C - 2004 - Gary Taylor-Fletcher, Jamie McCombe
Mansfield - 2004 - Junior Mendes
Bournemth - 2011 - Donal McDermott and now Anton Robinson.

9 – Quiz 1 – Post 39

The signing of Anton Robinson is the ninth time Town have signed someone after defeating them in playoff ties. Can you name the other eight?

2.33 – Pre-Season Odyssey Part Two – Post 40b

We’ve already seen, according to figures from 2008/09, that pre-season games don’t have an over-strong bearing on the rest of the season to come – I was going to collate the 2009/10 and 2010/11 figures, but I don’t think, given what we saw, that it would be worth anybody’s while, but the 2011/12 pre-season might be worth casting an eye over. Not that it’ll give us any pointers, but its always¹ interesting to see what other teams have been doing.

So that’s what I’ve done. Looking at first team fixtures only (and so discounting any of the games that I’ve actually seen, and my apologies to Alfreton Town, whose 14-0 victory will go uncredited), I’ve tried to rank League One pre-seasons against one another as objectively as I can. There’s only so much balancing you can do with this, so I’ve tried to rank it so that games against ‘higher’ teams are worth more than those against ‘lower’ teams, but not so much that figures get impossibly skewed.

Knowing what I know, I ought to warn you that these figure will, more likely than not, bear absolutely no relation to what you will see when the season actually kicks off on August 6th, but with the pre-season Town have had, I’m hoping it will carry through (though heaven help the development squad).

Right, then, on with the chart.

Here we go. Doesn’t that make interesting reading. Top of the Pre-Season pops are the mighty Cherries, bouncing back from playoff disappointment by walloping teams they might have got to face in the league had they won. They’re followed closely by Brentford, whose new Bee-style away shirt has been particularly successful so far and are one of two teams (along with Rochdale) to defeat Premiership opposition, in the form of last season’s FA Cup Finalists Stoke City.

Meanwhile, both Charlton and Yeovil Town have defeated Bristol City, which, while you can’t guarantee such things, suggests they might be worth considering for a cup upset this season; all eyes on their Carling Cup tie against Swindon in the first midweek game of the season.

Its also worth noting the difference in the number of games played between 4 and 8 – will be interesting to note how much match fitness that will bring Notts County, as to whether their mammoth pre-season will leave them in better stead than the results suggest, or if Bournemouth’s briefer one will result in them being a little off the pace early doors. Again, only time will tell; as with all pre-season things, we’re working on supposition. One thing that I would expect to see continuing is the goal tallies; not as extreme (the top two both won 0-10, which I suspect we won’t see in season) as this, but Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday would be teams – Gary Megson, anyone – whose games I would anticipate not being packed full of net-bulging action.

So there you have it. The best pre-seasons might not make the best seasons, but at least the fans have enjoyed them in the sunshine. The worst ones might not necessarily bring disaster, but I bet the fans of those teams who’ve only won one game aren’t particularly confident for the year ahead.

My prediction? I’d be very surprised to see the top six like that at the end of the year, but the bottom four aren’t a million miles away from what I expect it to be.

Incidentally, there are three games still to go, as I make it; Charlton play Carshalton, Yeovil host Southampton and another game that I don’t have to hand takes place.

¹Perhaps this ‘always’ is being generous, but go with me, it’ll make the rest of the post work.

6.515 – Another Point About Substitutes – Post 42

It struck me, while discussing the number of substitutes in League One yesterday, that I might be missing something quite obvious; its about those time-wasting substitutions at the end of games, and how they might skew the figures. I know, for example, that Paul Tisdale played about a minute for Exeter at the end of their season, and his one appearance (which was about 90 seconds long) counted in the figures. So I needed to try something that would balance it out a bit more; I was drawn, as often in these circumstances, to percentages.

Basically, what percentage of a teams’ playing time was taken up by substitutes? There’d be a maximum of somewhere around 27% (3 players coming on for 90 minutes a time) but I didn’t expect we’d trouble double figures, to be honest. What I didn’t expect to find is that Huddersfield Town topped the table for time played by substitutes, with 6.515% of the total league game time being taken up by replacements – this figure being in no small part due to Jordan Rhodes’ seeming inability to fulfil his 90 minutes whenever he played and the willingness of Lee Clark to remove Benik Afobe from the fray.

My thinking was, then, that the more successful teams would use their substitutes later, just to waste time, and the worse teams would use them sooner, so as to try to change things. I was, as yesterday, misguided.

Look at the percentage line (in red) dipping massively from almost six to just over 4.5, despite the wild inconsistencies (Sheffield Wednesday, with their huge squad, showing up there) from individual team to team. I took into account, for this, the total minutes played (11 x 90 for each game, less the minutes lost for sendings off) and balanced that into percentages with the total time played by the substitutes. Those of you who read yesterday’s post won’t be surprised to see MK Dons featuring so highly; the top three being Town 6.515, Sheffield W 6.432, and MK Dons on 6.430. It’s a fair bit, that, really; its about 65 minutes of game time every match being played by a substitute. Because this table is a bit more compact, I’ve put it in at the bottom. Enjoy reading it, and well done to Oldham and Dagenham, who had the most faith in their starting XIs last season, or the least faith in their substitutes, depending on how you sway. The three columns, if you’re interested, are total minutes (including playoffs), total substitute minutes, and % of Total Minutes that were played by Substitutes.

78.922 – An Opus To Pre-Season In Three Parts: Part I 2008/09 – Post 40a

I like pre-season games. Those of you reading who’ve seen me at games this year as far afield as Guiseley, Bedfont and Dronsfield would attest to that. I love the unknown footballers playing under very little pressure. I find it entertaining and you get to see some wonderful goals (Bradford Park Avenue’s first against City was wonderful) by players you least expect to score them.

At the end of the day, the games don’t really mean anything. No Arsenal fan is appeased by winning the Emirates Cup and no Brentford fan, happy though they may have been to beat Stoke City, would trade a pre-season victory against a top-flight team for even one victory in the league when the business really start.

But.

But.

But the games must mean something, right, or else they wouldn’t be played. They do. They’re there for building up fitness for players, and trying out trialists. My question here, though, is borne from the relative successes of Huddersfield (5 games won in a row for the first team) and Brentford (who beats someone 0-10?!?). Do positive results carry through into the season, or is it just a case of ‘Well done lads, now let’s do something different when it matters’.

Here I attempt to find out.

I have, over the course of this 3-post epic, taken League One Pre-Seasons from 2008-09 to the present day; which in hindsight, was probably a mistake. It was very, very difficult to find results from friendlies from July 2008, but I think I got them all in the end. Allow a game or two either way for that one, I think. What I did, then, was table the games up (all pre-season games, be they first team or development squad or reserves or whatever, because at that stage, there’s all sorts of inter-squad chicanery and, I also reasoned, the teams are playing teams balanced for their levels. Stockport Reserves aren’t playing Barcelona, they’re playing an equivalent team to the first team, who should be of slightly lower ability) and balance the games in a points per game system, which was compared to the actual results in the league the subsequent campaign.

I expected that the pre-season figures would probably be more positive than the league because I know the trend is for teams to play against weaker opposition, which makes sense; big teams bring in the money, little teams bring in the confidence; this is borne out by a 29% increase in ppg in pre-season to regular season, which is a far from

inconsequential amount (over the course of the season, if that were played out all round, teams would have around 13 points more on the board). The number of games, however, is worth bearing in mind, as it ranged from 3 (MK Dons) to 14 (Stockport – though their reserves and development squads played a good number of those).

I want to mention a specific game, too – Stockport’s first pre-season game at Cammell Laird. County won the game 2-3, with the first goal scored by a certain Anthony Pilkington, which highlights how long ago this was. The Lairds then netted twice before Stockport pulled level, the equaliser by then trialist Lee Novak.

For 2008/09, we were in a League One with a dominant Leicester City and a not quite fit for purpose Hereford Utd. In 46 games, the two teams averaged 2.087 and 0.739 ppg respectively. Over their pre-seasons, the figures were pretty well on, as well, Leicester’s being 2.000, and Hereford’s at 0.875. These figures would suggest that their fans might well have known what was coming for them as early as July. However, scratching below that lovely coincidence, we see Cheltenham Town, in 23rd place (RS), and with an average of 0.848ppg. Their pre-season was something of a triumph, winning 5, drawing 4 and losing 1 of their 10 games – a 1.9ppg – double what they would go onto attain. By the same token, Peterborough (boo) in 2nd spot, lost 3 of their 5 pre-season games, leaving a 1.200ppg, which they would surpass by .735ppg in the regular season for a 1.935ppg. These stories, I’m sorry to say, are the more common theme. Northampton, in 20th, were the closest two figures, ranging between 1.000ppg in pre-season and 1.065ppg in the regular season.

We are, of course, here for Huddersfield Town, sitting relatively pretty in 9th spot in the regular season figures, averaging just over 1.478ppg, which is average indeed, what with 1.500 being exactly half of the points offer. This pre-season was an inauspicious one, though, with the Hartlepool Centenary Tournament accounting for two of the three defeats, and Emley (8-0) accounting for half of the wins. It meant that Town’s ppgd (points per game differential) was 78.922% – good for fourth worst in the league – the best being Cheltenham’s.

What 2008/09 suggests is that although pre-season can be a decent indicator of what’s to come, it isn’t necessarily so. You’re just as likely to have a good pre-season and fail as a bad one and succeed, so we can’t judge too much from it. It also points out that the teams themselves don’t really care about it, or else they’d keep better records of them somewhere.

Next up, 2009/10, and what trends emerge from that, or continue from this.

0.520 – If Football Was Baseball – Post 36

If you know me, you’ll know I love a bit of baseball. If you don’t know me, you’ve just learnt that fact. Its through baseball that I really developed my love of statistics, and probably as a result of those such as Bill James that I began this blog, attempting to explain a few things about the ‘other’ game that I love.

This post is about the recording of results (and, I’m sure you’ll notice) picks up from the same dataset as the last post I did. American sports balance their divisional tables differently to in the UK – largely because of the lack of draws/ties – and have them ranked by ‘winning’ percentage. It is this that allows the word ‘winningest’ to exist, which is a bad thing, but allows a fairer judgement of teams who have played different amounts of games, which is a good thing.

It was brought to my attention that the Atlanta Braves were had fallen to .500 over their history (they currently stand one game above .500¹ – 9990/9989) and, naturally, I wondered how this would apply to football teams. So I took my data set and applied the same rules, expecting to get a similar looking table to the one in the post before. I wasn’t disappointed².

Huddersfield Town fall in this table to 24th (which isn’t too bad) and the balance of power has shifted at the top – Manchester Utd being .001 ahead of Liverpool now; although that counts for 4 games above .500 (United having played 38 more); that figure will probably stay the way it is for a good while now, I’d expect, just as Arsenal will find it pretty difficult to overhaul New Brighton Tower’s three seasons of relative glory.

This table is standing as a post on its own, but the information in it will be used for something a little deeper over the weekend.

The columns, by the way, reading across, are games played, wins, draws/2, Winning % (the focus here), 50% of total games (for a formula), games above .500, and then % of games above .500

Manchester U		4290	2040	515	0.596	2145	410	9.557
Liverpool		4258	2017	517.5	0.595	2129	406	9.523
New Brighton Tower		102	48	12	0.588	51	9	8.824
Arsenal		4258	1931	534	0.579	2129	336	7.879
Birmingham C		4396	1834	607	0.555	2198	243	5.528
Stevenage		46	18	7.5	0.554	23	3	5.435
Ashington		328	109	71	0.549	164	16	4.878
Leeds Utd		3052	1269	399	0.547	1526	142	4.653
Chelsea		3880	1594	505	0.541	1940	159	4.098
Aston Villa		4394	1833	524	0.536	2197	160	3.641
Everton		4382	1794	545.5	0.534	2191	149	3.389
Ipswich Town		2862	1162	359	0.531	1431	90	3.145
Reading		3750	1523	466.5	0.531	1875	115	3.053
Newcastle Utd		4290	1766	507	0.530	2145	128	2.984
Wigan Ath		1462	576	198	0.529	731	43	2.941
Millwall		3696	1463	483	0.527	1848	98	2.652
Manchester C		4332	1754	525.5	0.526	2166	114	2.620
Sunderland		4424	1791	533.5	0.525	2212	113	2.543
MK Dons		506	205	60.5	0.525	253	13	2.470
Wolverhampton W		4540	1835	538	0.523	2270	103	2.269
Wimbledon		960	364	137.5	0.522	480	22	2.240
Sheffield U		4446	1766	549.5	0.521	2223	93	2.081
Stalybridge C		76	33	6.5	0.520	38	2	1.974
Huddersfield T		3894	1515	508.5	0.520	1947	77	1.965
Bristol City		4246	1652	550	0.519	2123	79	1.861
QPR		3630	1402	479	0.518	1815	66	1.818
Peterborough U		2346	889	326	0.518	1173	42	1.790
Brighton & HA		3712	1443	473	0.516	1856	60	1.603
Gateshead		1004	394	122	0.514	502	14	1.394
Preston NE		4592	1783	576.5	0.514	2296	64	1.383
Blackburn R		4450	1737	546	0.513	2225	58	1.303
Plymouth A		3706	1417	480	0.512	1853	44	1.187
West Bromwich Alb		4514	1749	554.5	0.510	2257	47	1.030
Brentford		3756	1432	483	0.510	1878	37	0.972
Norwich C		3610	1332	507	0.509	1805	34	0.942
Wycombe W		824	289	129.5	0.508	412	7	0.789
Bolton Wanderers		4484	1737	540	0.508	2242	35	0.781
Sheffield W		4406	1682	555	0.508	2203	34	0.772
Hull City		4090	1530	545	0.507	2045	30	0.733
Luton Town		3586	1362	455.5	0.507	1793	25	0.683
Burnley		4568	1759	555	0.507	2284	30	0.657
Southampton		3526	1324	462	0.507	1763	23	0.652
Bournemouth		3644	1362	482	0.506	1822	22	0.590
Chesterfield		4056	1551	499	0.505	2028	22	0.542
Derby Co		4486	1727	540	0.505	2243	24	0.535
Nottingham F		4402	1658	565.5	0.505	2201	23	0.511
Tranmere R		3718	1410	460.5	0.503	1859	12	0.309
Rushden & D		184	67	25.5	0.503	92	1	0.272
Swindon T		3738	1378	496	0.501	1869	5	0.134
Watford		3706	1374	483	0.501	1853	4	0.108
Crystal P		3148	1152	424.5	0.501	1574	3	0.079
West Ham		3528	1328	436.5	0.500	1764	1	0.014
Leicester C		4342	1600	566	0.499	2171	-5	-0.115
Northampton T		3740	1416	449.5	0.499	1870	-5	-0.120
Fulham		3906	1452	495.5	0.499	1953	-6	-0.141
Colchester U		2700	982	363	0.498	1350	-5	-0.185
Scunthorpe U		2765	997	378.5	0.497	1382.5	-7	-0.253
Middlesbrough		4140	1548	511	0.497	2070	-11	-0.266
Morecambe		184	64	27.5	0.497	92	-1	-0.272
Bristol Rovers		3708	1367	476.5	0.497	1854	-11	-0.283
Cardiff C		3632	1330	473.5	0.497	1816	-13	-0.344
Wrexham		3556	1318	447.5	0.496	1778	-13	-0.352
Rotherham Utd		3732	1389	463	0.496	1866	-14	-0.375
Oldham A		4046	1478	529	0.496	2023	-16	-0.395
Swansea C		3692	1372	458	0.496	1846	-16	-0.433
Tottenham H		3692	1372	458	0.496	1846	-16	-0.433
Bury		4484	1672	549.5	0.495	2242	-21	-0.457
Stoke C		4242	1571	527	0.495	2121	-23	-0.542
Yeovil T		368	141	41	0.495	184	-2	-0.543
Southend U		3772	1397	461.5	0.493	1886	-28	-0.729
Blackpool		4334	1587	548	0.493	2167	-32	-0.738
Bradford C		4234	1540	542	0.492	2117	-35	-0.827
Portsmouth		3594	1300	466.5	0.492	1797	-31	-0.849
Notts C		4618	1690	577	0.491	2309	-42	-0.909
Bradford PA		2190	837	238	0.491	1095	-20	-0.913
Mansfield T		3154	1142	405	0.490	1577	-30	-0.951
Grimsby T		4458	1668	513.5	0.489	2229	-48	-1.066
Charlton A		3512	1269	446.5	0.488	1756	-41	-1.153
Barnsley		4370	1565	563	0.487	2185	-57	-1.304
Gillingham		3544	1254	470.5	0.487	1772	-48	-1.340
South Shields		462	165	58.5	0.484	231	-8	-1.623
Shrewsbury T		2718	934	378.5	0.483	1359	-47	-1.711
Port Vale		4226	1498	542	0.483	2113	-73	-1.727
Coventry C		3620	1272	474	0.482	1810	-64	-1.768
Lincoln C		4376	1580	530.5	0.482	2188	-78	-1.771
Doncaster R		3466	1239	431.5	0.482	1733	-63	-1.803
Stockport C		4322	1550	530	0.481	2161	-81	-1.874
Carlisle U		3306	1182	402	0.479	1653	-69	-2.087
Cambridge U		1586	537	222	0.479	793	-34	-2.144
Walsall		3938	1403	479.5	0.478	1969	-87	-2.197
Torquay		3374	1160	446	0.476	1687	-81	-2.401
Oxford U		2020	679	282	0.476	1010	-49	-2.426
York C		3052	1062	387	0.475	1526	-77	-2.523
Barnet		724	241	100	0.470	362	-22	-2.970
Leeds City		380	140	38.5	0.470	190	-12	-3.026
Cheltenham T		552	178	81	0.469	276	-17	-3.080
Rochdale		3702	1252	480.5	0.468	1851	-119	-3.201
Dagenham & R		184	64	22	0.467	92	-6	-3.261
Aldershot		2484	837	324	0.467	1242	-81	-3.261
Chester C		3026	1023	388.5	0.466	1513	-102	-3.354
Wigan Borough		412	145	47	0.466	206	-14	-3.398
Leyton O		4106	1379	532.5	0.466	2053	-142	-3.446
Darlington		3614	1233	445.5	0.464	1807	-129	-3.556
Exeter C		3535	1175	464	0.464	1767.5	-129	-3.635
Scarborough		582	193	76.5	0.463	291	-22	-3.694
Nelson		412	154	36.5	0.462	206	-16	-3.762
Hereford U		1360	439	188.5	0.461	680	-53	-3.860
Maidstone Utd		134	43	18.5	0.459	67	-6	-4.104
Crewe A		3816	1303	444.5	0.458	1908	-161	-4.206
Southport		2200	723	284	0.458	1100	-93	-4.227
Macclesfield T		644	204	90.5	0.457	322	-28	-4.270
Burton Alb		92	29	13	0.457	46	-4	-4.348
Boston U		230	72	33	0.457	115	-10	-4.348
Hartlepool U		3714	1261	428	0.455	1857	-168	-4.523
Bootle		22	9	1	0.455	11	-1	-4.545
Workington		1194	385	155	0.452	597	-57	-4.774
Accrington Stanley		1650	587	158	0.452	825	-80	-4.848
Newport Co		2672	888	312.5	0.449	1336	-136	-5.071
Halifax T		3068	967	395	0.444	1534	-172	-5.606
Kidderminster H		230	72	29.5	0.441	115	-14	-5.870
Barrow		1924	624	207	0.432	962	-131	-6.809
New Brighton		884	287	93.5	0.430	442	-62	-6.957
Glossop NE		618	197	68	0.429	309	-44	-7.120
Aberdare Athletic		252	78	30	0.429	126	-18	-7.143
Durham City		286	95	27	0.427	143	-21	-7.343
Accrington FC		122	35	17	0.426	61	-9	-7.377
Gainsborough T		564	175	59	0.415	282	-48	-8.511
Merthyr Town		420	115	53	0.400	210	-42	-10.000
Darwen		232	75	13.5	0.381	116	-28	-11.853
Middlesbrough Ironopolis		28	8	2	0.357	14	-4	-14.286
Loughborough		158	34	20	0.342	79	-25	-15.823
Thames		84	20	8.5	0.339	42	-14	-16.071
Rotherham Town		88	24	4	0.318	44	-16	-18.182
Northwich Vic		50	12	2.5	0.290	25	-11	-21.000

¹Shut up. Not even close – .513 (10,272/9,374), which is good for 6th behind Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Cards and Red Sox. Eat that, Southsiders.

²That’s not strictly true. I was disappointed to see I’d missed out Burton United/Swifts and Albion while I decided what to do with them and ended up forgetting to replace them in the last post.

20 – Four Seasons In One Day – Post 35

Every time I think about how I’d like Town to end up, I always think of Bolton Wanderers. They were always high up in the second tier and, though their Premiership venture did work out, there was always the feel that if it didn’t, they’d be back battling at the top of the Championship the next season – a top 30 club, in other words – and that’s how I see Town, really – albeit with little justification since I started watching them.

I want to see my team win games, and it doesn’t really matter, I don’t think, what level it is. I’d be happy to have a really good season in Division 3 this year, but I’d rather have two pretty good years at Tier 3 level than one boom and one bust year – build slowly, lest your balloon bursteth.

My query in this case, then, is which teams have been most successful, year on year, at whatever level they’re at. Logic, for me, would dictate that the teams who have been in the top flight the longest would probably be highest – struggling and relegation seasons would count against you (though a relegation could easily be balanced by a flying promotion, or a few steady years in the tier below). What I’ve done, then, is take every team’s average league season (ranging from 1 season (Stevenage) to 112 (Everton and West Brom amongst 10 others)) and panned it out over the ‘perfect’ 46 game season.

Remember, at this point, that 70ish points is ‘generally’ good enough for a playoff spot, and make judgements from there. As you can see from this table, your Mighty Terriers finish 20th out of 133 teams in this system, which was a surprise for me – I expected a finish somewhere far closer to the bottom.

Town’s position is just something to be proud of, I think. I’d like to think we might get above QPR next season (goal difference?) and possibly Wigan, too (the latter more likely than the former, due to the minimal effect you can have on 84 seasons of results on the strength of one. By comparison, there’s no reason we might not pull away from Brighton, Preston and Plymouth – I would hope Town should have a better season than they all do – Sheffield Wednesday? Well, they’re the team to beat. It will also be interesting to see if Crawley shoot straight to the top – I wouldn’t be surprised.

But look around – there’s some perennially big teams hovering around on their reputations – Everton, Villa, Manchester City, Sunderland and Wolves – all on 68 points (this is – I suspect – because so many seasons in the early days had a heavy swing of results being home wins; that many home wins would lead to a high points tally). Amongst them are the minnows, the New Brighton Tower and Stalybridge types who had decent seasons back when there was very few games, and as a result, pan out quite well.

Meanwhile, its no surprise to see that the lowest 112 season representatives are Notts County – their fortunes have been mixed to say the least over the last few years.

There’s other interesting outcomes, too – Coventry’s perennial struggle against the drop leaves them level with York; Stockport’s 100th league season will have to wait, while above them, Dagenham and Aldershot will try to impress.

The lowest placed current team is Accrington Stanley, though that includes their former guise (that was difficult decision making – essentially, provided there was no merger, I went with them being the same club; except in the case of Leeds City, which seemed to benefit their successors.

So there you go; constantly do well, and you too could be Liverpool or Manchester Utd. What didn’t you know already.

78.5 – Lee Clark And The Development Of A Manager – Post 34

Despite Lee Clark having been managing Town for two and a half years or so, his critics remain unconvinced by his record; the arguments are well-known, and summarised as such – he could have done better with the considerable resources at his disposal; the counter-argument is that he’s done pretty well anyway; personally, I can see both sides. I don’t think he’s been anything like bad enough for Dean Hoyle to sack him, but I’ve been a little underwhelmed, if not with recent results, with performances when I’ve seen.  

There is a third way. The League Managers association run a table of managers according to the performances of their teams, and for the 2010/11 season, Lee Clark was the 9th highest scoring manager on their list. Not bad for someone with only 2½ years experience however you swing it.

That LMA table didn’t really suit my purposes when I thought about Town managers over history; there’s so many more cup competitions now than before, and I couldn’t justify, however I looked, that a victory in a Football League Trophy tie counts even a tenth as much as a victory in a league game. My table, then, only counted league games. I thought about this for a while, and decided that it was unfair on the earlier managers who guided Town to FA Cup Semi-Finals (and even won the thing once upon a time) so I needed to balance that out a bit.

Thus, FA Cup games and League Cup games got a collective ranking (no home or away discrepancy; it doesn’t matter so much, and as much as clean sheets count for nothing, they’ve got to be included, too) of 10 points for a win, and JPT games got ignored because I really can’t justify their presence in this. This, I suppose, favours the managers of the teams outside the top flight, though in theory their game frequency should balance out their game difficulty. I tried it a few ways, and this was the fairest I got¹. The other points I’ll make here is that finals are worth 15/7.5 points. Managing in a final deserves extra kudos and, for the few Town have played in, I don’t see it’ll make any great shakes to the figures – even fewer have been won, of course. I also neglected to include the FA Cup Qualification rounds from 1910. Sorry, if you feel they should be factored in.

The results aren’t entirely surprising. There’s a small bunch near the top of very successful interim managers, headed by (look away now, Len Shackleton) the Board of Directors in 1921 (two games, two wins) and two stints of Gerry Murphy. Factoring out those managers who have been in charge of fewer than 10 games, we get a more accurate picture.

I was surprised to see Cecil Potter at the top of the list, but it makes a lot of sense after reasoning out that he largely inherited Herbert Chapman’s team and in his only season, led them to success. Ambrose Langley, too, oversaw a lot of success, as did, of course, Herbert Chapman himself. Then…Lee Clark. Ahead – importantly – of Neil Warnock. Ahead – interestingly – of Mick Buxton and (I guess Lee Clark would enjoy this himself) Bill Shankly.

Another feature worth noting is the improvement of Ian Greaves (albeit from only 12 games) from his first spell to his second, and of Peter Jackson from his first spell to his second; its also relatively useful to note that Mick Wadsworth, Stan Ternent and Andy Ritchie are all in the bottom half; which sort of plays out the popular opinion – and its no surprise to see Malcolm Macdonald at the bottom of the list, either.

There is, of course, the caveat that Lee Clark hasn’t actually won anything. Two good season in the third tier, with a third at a level his team could be expected to do well in to come is all he can put on his CV yet; the real test, I think its pretty obvious, will come when he has to go up a level, something Buxton had to deal with, and something Horton interited (Warnock, of course, left before he got chance). The table proves this to me; I’m happier that Town are in good hands now than I was before I worked it all out. Lee Clark, as ever, I wish you all the best. Top this table next season, and I’ll be absolutely delighted.

¹I’m not 100% sold on it, but I don’t see its possible to weight it any other way without some sort of ‘league position disparity’ at the time of cup games and I can’t see how that would fit in except in an analogue (stepped) system – maybe 15 points for beating someone 50 places above, 14 for 45 and so on; that would prove VERY difficult to obtain and work out, particularly for the earlier games. There’s also the budget issue, but that would be impossible to cover for every period of the club’s history.