2.33 – Pre-Season Odyssey Part Two – Post 40b

We’ve already seen, according to figures from 2008/09, that pre-season games don’t have an over-strong bearing on the rest of the season to come – I was going to collate the 2009/10 and 2010/11 figures, but I don’t think, given what we saw, that it would be worth anybody’s while, but the 2011/12 pre-season might be worth casting an eye over. Not that it’ll give us any pointers, but its always¹ interesting to see what other teams have been doing.

So that’s what I’ve done. Looking at first team fixtures only (and so discounting any of the games that I’ve actually seen, and my apologies to Alfreton Town, whose 14-0 victory will go uncredited), I’ve tried to rank League One pre-seasons against one another as objectively as I can. There’s only so much balancing you can do with this, so I’ve tried to rank it so that games against ‘higher’ teams are worth more than those against ‘lower’ teams, but not so much that figures get impossibly skewed.

Knowing what I know, I ought to warn you that these figure will, more likely than not, bear absolutely no relation to what you will see when the season actually kicks off on August 6th, but with the pre-season Town have had, I’m hoping it will carry through (though heaven help the development squad).

Right, then, on with the chart.

Here we go. Doesn’t that make interesting reading. Top of the Pre-Season pops are the mighty Cherries, bouncing back from playoff disappointment by walloping teams they might have got to face in the league had they won. They’re followed closely by Brentford, whose new Bee-style away shirt has been particularly successful so far and are one of two teams (along with Rochdale) to defeat Premiership opposition, in the form of last season’s FA Cup Finalists Stoke City.

Meanwhile, both Charlton and Yeovil Town have defeated Bristol City, which, while you can’t guarantee such things, suggests they might be worth considering for a cup upset this season; all eyes on their Carling Cup tie against Swindon in the first midweek game of the season.

Its also worth noting the difference in the number of games played between 4 and 8 – will be interesting to note how much match fitness that will bring Notts County, as to whether their mammoth pre-season will leave them in better stead than the results suggest, or if Bournemouth’s briefer one will result in them being a little off the pace early doors. Again, only time will tell; as with all pre-season things, we’re working on supposition. One thing that I would expect to see continuing is the goal tallies; not as extreme (the top two both won 0-10, which I suspect we won’t see in season) as this, but Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday would be teams – Gary Megson, anyone – whose games I would anticipate not being packed full of net-bulging action.

So there you have it. The best pre-seasons might not make the best seasons, but at least the fans have enjoyed them in the sunshine. The worst ones might not necessarily bring disaster, but I bet the fans of those teams who’ve only won one game aren’t particularly confident for the year ahead.

My prediction? I’d be very surprised to see the top six like that at the end of the year, but the bottom four aren’t a million miles away from what I expect it to be.

Incidentally, there are three games still to go, as I make it; Charlton play Carshalton, Yeovil host Southampton and another game that I don’t have to hand takes place.

¹Perhaps this ‘always’ is being generous, but go with me, it’ll make the rest of the post work.

78.922 – An Opus To Pre-Season In Three Parts: Part I 2008/09 – Post 40a

I like pre-season games. Those of you reading who’ve seen me at games this year as far afield as Guiseley, Bedfont and Dronsfield would attest to that. I love the unknown footballers playing under very little pressure. I find it entertaining and you get to see some wonderful goals (Bradford Park Avenue’s first against City was wonderful) by players you least expect to score them.

At the end of the day, the games don’t really mean anything. No Arsenal fan is appeased by winning the Emirates Cup and no Brentford fan, happy though they may have been to beat Stoke City, would trade a pre-season victory against a top-flight team for even one victory in the league when the business really start.

But.

But.

But the games must mean something, right, or else they wouldn’t be played. They do. They’re there for building up fitness for players, and trying out trialists. My question here, though, is borne from the relative successes of Huddersfield (5 games won in a row for the first team) and Brentford (who beats someone 0-10?!?). Do positive results carry through into the season, or is it just a case of ‘Well done lads, now let’s do something different when it matters’.

Here I attempt to find out.

I have, over the course of this 3-post epic, taken League One Pre-Seasons from 2008-09 to the present day; which in hindsight, was probably a mistake. It was very, very difficult to find results from friendlies from July 2008, but I think I got them all in the end. Allow a game or two either way for that one, I think. What I did, then, was table the games up (all pre-season games, be they first team or development squad or reserves or whatever, because at that stage, there’s all sorts of inter-squad chicanery and, I also reasoned, the teams are playing teams balanced for their levels. Stockport Reserves aren’t playing Barcelona, they’re playing an equivalent team to the first team, who should be of slightly lower ability) and balance the games in a points per game system, which was compared to the actual results in the league the subsequent campaign.

I expected that the pre-season figures would probably be more positive than the league because I know the trend is for teams to play against weaker opposition, which makes sense; big teams bring in the money, little teams bring in the confidence; this is borne out by a 29% increase in ppg in pre-season to regular season, which is a far from

inconsequential amount (over the course of the season, if that were played out all round, teams would have around 13 points more on the board). The number of games, however, is worth bearing in mind, as it ranged from 3 (MK Dons) to 14 (Stockport – though their reserves and development squads played a good number of those).

I want to mention a specific game, too – Stockport’s first pre-season game at Cammell Laird. County won the game 2-3, with the first goal scored by a certain Anthony Pilkington, which highlights how long ago this was. The Lairds then netted twice before Stockport pulled level, the equaliser by then trialist Lee Novak.

For 2008/09, we were in a League One with a dominant Leicester City and a not quite fit for purpose Hereford Utd. In 46 games, the two teams averaged 2.087 and 0.739 ppg respectively. Over their pre-seasons, the figures were pretty well on, as well, Leicester’s being 2.000, and Hereford’s at 0.875. These figures would suggest that their fans might well have known what was coming for them as early as July. However, scratching below that lovely coincidence, we see Cheltenham Town, in 23rd place (RS), and with an average of 0.848ppg. Their pre-season was something of a triumph, winning 5, drawing 4 and losing 1 of their 10 games – a 1.9ppg – double what they would go onto attain. By the same token, Peterborough (boo) in 2nd spot, lost 3 of their 5 pre-season games, leaving a 1.200ppg, which they would surpass by .735ppg in the regular season for a 1.935ppg. These stories, I’m sorry to say, are the more common theme. Northampton, in 20th, were the closest two figures, ranging between 1.000ppg in pre-season and 1.065ppg in the regular season.

We are, of course, here for Huddersfield Town, sitting relatively pretty in 9th spot in the regular season figures, averaging just over 1.478ppg, which is average indeed, what with 1.500 being exactly half of the points offer. This pre-season was an inauspicious one, though, with the Hartlepool Centenary Tournament accounting for two of the three defeats, and Emley (8-0) accounting for half of the wins. It meant that Town’s ppgd (points per game differential) was 78.922% – good for fourth worst in the league – the best being Cheltenham’s.

What 2008/09 suggests is that although pre-season can be a decent indicator of what’s to come, it isn’t necessarily so. You’re just as likely to have a good pre-season and fail as a bad one and succeed, so we can’t judge too much from it. It also points out that the teams themselves don’t really care about it, or else they’d keep better records of them somewhere.

Next up, 2009/10, and what trends emerge from that, or continue from this.