97 – An Uneven Battle – Post 37

It struck me, when I was looking through the winning percentage of football clubs, that Chelsea’s % since 2000 would be incredibly high; so it proved – the sample I took was .737 over a few years, which is high indeed. Then I was reading my Bill James book on the way into work and this idea, the idea of league dominance crept into my head. One of the stats Bill uses is a five-year total of Win Shares to rank who has performed the best over a certain length of time. I decided to bring that idea over to football, but used both 3 years and 5 years as my bases, just to see if there was a marked difference.

Here is the Top 10 3 Year Winning Percentages, all time, in the English league – the year you see is the final year of the middle season.

Chelsea	2006	114	0.820
Manchester United	2008	114	0.803
Chelsea	2005	114	0.803
Chelsea	2007	114	0.794
Manchester United	2009	114	0.789
Arsenal	2003	114	0.789
Manchester United	2007	114	0.785
Chelsea	2008	114	0.776
Chelsea	2009	114	0.776
Arsenal	2004	114	0.776

That’s 10 teams, all in the last 10 years, more dominant than ANY teams, EVER. The first non-big four team is the Preston of 1890 (the invincible Preston the season before, and the title that season too). It all seems crazy that now, more than ever, we’re watching football that is almost written before we start. Look at the ratios of the top 3 – above .8 – that means they’re going to win over four out of every five games (draws not-with-standing); how is that possibly good for the game?

We’re here for Huddersfield Town though. I thought that we might have a chance, actually, of being pretty high in this comparison – winning three league titles in a row, and having two runners-up spots after that; but 97th is the highest spot we muster – the 3 years of the 3 championships – though admittedly the first one was horribly close. What we see then is that since, effectively, Jose Mourinho took over at Chelsea, there is very little interest in anything beyond the top two teams, and their paths to glory have been unimpeded until…well, until about now. We know Manchester Utd won the Premiership this season with a stonking home record and a lot of away draws – they actually sit level with the bottom of the table above on 0.776. Chelsea, though, are down to 0.732, and I think we can say with some certainty, that they’ll face more of a challenge from Manchester City than ever before next season.

I wanted to give the figures a bit of context, so I looked abroad for successful teams, my gaze first falling on the feats of the Grande Torino. Over two three year periods (centred on 1947 and 1948) the Grande Torino were 0.817 and 0.810 – which would bring them in second and third to the Chelsea team of 2006. The 1946 vintage were 7th, at 0.793. That confirmed my knowledge of how superlative that team were and much of a travesty it is that they’re not better known in this country. Never-the-less, there’s other movements going on, currently, that might just be as dominant as the Chelseas and Uniteds of the mid-noughties.

FC Barcelona have, focusing on their most recent La Liga season (2009/10) a winning percentage of 0.851; which, put into context means that, if their games aren’t draws (of which they’ve had 18) there’s an 85% chance they’ll win ANY game, not just home, but away games as well. That’s a level of dominance we’ve never seen before. The tragedy, and its a tragedy that is something like the argument tennis players have that they were playing in the time of Federer, is that Real Madrid’s score for that same period is 0.816 – good for third on the list by a mere 0.001 places.

This high-falutin’ nonsense isn’t something I often spend a lot of time thinking about, but the number astounded me when I saw them – for the teams today to be getting more and more dominant is a worry to me, its a worry not just about how bored I am seeing the same teams winning things, its a worry about the very state of the game that all things will run through these elite clubs – as if it doesn’t already.

Anyway, back to Huddersfield Town.

Outside the 1920s, the best performance over three years by a Town team surrounded the 1979/80 season, unsurprisingly, and saw the team having a % of 0.612; bang on level with Bradford City’s highest mark – centred a season later. On that same 0.612 figure, however, we see Lee Clark’s team of 2009/10. Time and again when I work out the numbers, this team is as successful as any Town team outside the 1920s and that 1980 Championship winning team. Another strong season, and that mark might even be surpassed – they’ll have to go some to get up to the 0.683 of the 1925 team, but I don’t see that its entirely out of reach.

Meanwhile, the lowest Town mark was centred on the 1987 season (old ground, isn’t it) at 0.383 – that’s a pretty atrocious mark, to be honest – only 287 three-season spells, out of more than 8,000 have been worse. Never again, let’s hope.

0.520 – If Football Was Baseball – Post 36

If you know me, you’ll know I love a bit of baseball. If you don’t know me, you’ve just learnt that fact. Its through baseball that I really developed my love of statistics, and probably as a result of those such as Bill James that I began this blog, attempting to explain a few things about the ‘other’ game that I love.

This post is about the recording of results (and, I’m sure you’ll notice) picks up from the same dataset as the last post I did. American sports balance their divisional tables differently to in the UK – largely because of the lack of draws/ties – and have them ranked by ‘winning’ percentage. It is this that allows the word ‘winningest’ to exist, which is a bad thing, but allows a fairer judgement of teams who have played different amounts of games, which is a good thing.

It was brought to my attention that the Atlanta Braves were had fallen to .500 over their history (they currently stand one game above .500¹ – 9990/9989) and, naturally, I wondered how this would apply to football teams. So I took my data set and applied the same rules, expecting to get a similar looking table to the one in the post before. I wasn’t disappointed².

Huddersfield Town fall in this table to 24th (which isn’t too bad) and the balance of power has shifted at the top – Manchester Utd being .001 ahead of Liverpool now; although that counts for 4 games above .500 (United having played 38 more); that figure will probably stay the way it is for a good while now, I’d expect, just as Arsenal will find it pretty difficult to overhaul New Brighton Tower’s three seasons of relative glory.

This table is standing as a post on its own, but the information in it will be used for something a little deeper over the weekend.

The columns, by the way, reading across, are games played, wins, draws/2, Winning % (the focus here), 50% of total games (for a formula), games above .500, and then % of games above .500

Manchester U		4290	2040	515	0.596	2145	410	9.557
Liverpool		4258	2017	517.5	0.595	2129	406	9.523
New Brighton Tower		102	48	12	0.588	51	9	8.824
Arsenal		4258	1931	534	0.579	2129	336	7.879
Birmingham C		4396	1834	607	0.555	2198	243	5.528
Stevenage		46	18	7.5	0.554	23	3	5.435
Ashington		328	109	71	0.549	164	16	4.878
Leeds Utd		3052	1269	399	0.547	1526	142	4.653
Chelsea		3880	1594	505	0.541	1940	159	4.098
Aston Villa		4394	1833	524	0.536	2197	160	3.641
Everton		4382	1794	545.5	0.534	2191	149	3.389
Ipswich Town		2862	1162	359	0.531	1431	90	3.145
Reading		3750	1523	466.5	0.531	1875	115	3.053
Newcastle Utd		4290	1766	507	0.530	2145	128	2.984
Wigan Ath		1462	576	198	0.529	731	43	2.941
Millwall		3696	1463	483	0.527	1848	98	2.652
Manchester C		4332	1754	525.5	0.526	2166	114	2.620
Sunderland		4424	1791	533.5	0.525	2212	113	2.543
MK Dons		506	205	60.5	0.525	253	13	2.470
Wolverhampton W		4540	1835	538	0.523	2270	103	2.269
Wimbledon		960	364	137.5	0.522	480	22	2.240
Sheffield U		4446	1766	549.5	0.521	2223	93	2.081
Stalybridge C		76	33	6.5	0.520	38	2	1.974
Huddersfield T		3894	1515	508.5	0.520	1947	77	1.965
Bristol City		4246	1652	550	0.519	2123	79	1.861
QPR		3630	1402	479	0.518	1815	66	1.818
Peterborough U		2346	889	326	0.518	1173	42	1.790
Brighton & HA		3712	1443	473	0.516	1856	60	1.603
Gateshead		1004	394	122	0.514	502	14	1.394
Preston NE		4592	1783	576.5	0.514	2296	64	1.383
Blackburn R		4450	1737	546	0.513	2225	58	1.303
Plymouth A		3706	1417	480	0.512	1853	44	1.187
West Bromwich Alb		4514	1749	554.5	0.510	2257	47	1.030
Brentford		3756	1432	483	0.510	1878	37	0.972
Norwich C		3610	1332	507	0.509	1805	34	0.942
Wycombe W		824	289	129.5	0.508	412	7	0.789
Bolton Wanderers		4484	1737	540	0.508	2242	35	0.781
Sheffield W		4406	1682	555	0.508	2203	34	0.772
Hull City		4090	1530	545	0.507	2045	30	0.733
Luton Town		3586	1362	455.5	0.507	1793	25	0.683
Burnley		4568	1759	555	0.507	2284	30	0.657
Southampton		3526	1324	462	0.507	1763	23	0.652
Bournemouth		3644	1362	482	0.506	1822	22	0.590
Chesterfield		4056	1551	499	0.505	2028	22	0.542
Derby Co		4486	1727	540	0.505	2243	24	0.535
Nottingham F		4402	1658	565.5	0.505	2201	23	0.511
Tranmere R		3718	1410	460.5	0.503	1859	12	0.309
Rushden & D		184	67	25.5	0.503	92	1	0.272
Swindon T		3738	1378	496	0.501	1869	5	0.134
Watford		3706	1374	483	0.501	1853	4	0.108
Crystal P		3148	1152	424.5	0.501	1574	3	0.079
West Ham		3528	1328	436.5	0.500	1764	1	0.014
Leicester C		4342	1600	566	0.499	2171	-5	-0.115
Northampton T		3740	1416	449.5	0.499	1870	-5	-0.120
Fulham		3906	1452	495.5	0.499	1953	-6	-0.141
Colchester U		2700	982	363	0.498	1350	-5	-0.185
Scunthorpe U		2765	997	378.5	0.497	1382.5	-7	-0.253
Middlesbrough		4140	1548	511	0.497	2070	-11	-0.266
Morecambe		184	64	27.5	0.497	92	-1	-0.272
Bristol Rovers		3708	1367	476.5	0.497	1854	-11	-0.283
Cardiff C		3632	1330	473.5	0.497	1816	-13	-0.344
Wrexham		3556	1318	447.5	0.496	1778	-13	-0.352
Rotherham Utd		3732	1389	463	0.496	1866	-14	-0.375
Oldham A		4046	1478	529	0.496	2023	-16	-0.395
Swansea C		3692	1372	458	0.496	1846	-16	-0.433
Tottenham H		3692	1372	458	0.496	1846	-16	-0.433
Bury		4484	1672	549.5	0.495	2242	-21	-0.457
Stoke C		4242	1571	527	0.495	2121	-23	-0.542
Yeovil T		368	141	41	0.495	184	-2	-0.543
Southend U		3772	1397	461.5	0.493	1886	-28	-0.729
Blackpool		4334	1587	548	0.493	2167	-32	-0.738
Bradford C		4234	1540	542	0.492	2117	-35	-0.827
Portsmouth		3594	1300	466.5	0.492	1797	-31	-0.849
Notts C		4618	1690	577	0.491	2309	-42	-0.909
Bradford PA		2190	837	238	0.491	1095	-20	-0.913
Mansfield T		3154	1142	405	0.490	1577	-30	-0.951
Grimsby T		4458	1668	513.5	0.489	2229	-48	-1.066
Charlton A		3512	1269	446.5	0.488	1756	-41	-1.153
Barnsley		4370	1565	563	0.487	2185	-57	-1.304
Gillingham		3544	1254	470.5	0.487	1772	-48	-1.340
South Shields		462	165	58.5	0.484	231	-8	-1.623
Shrewsbury T		2718	934	378.5	0.483	1359	-47	-1.711
Port Vale		4226	1498	542	0.483	2113	-73	-1.727
Coventry C		3620	1272	474	0.482	1810	-64	-1.768
Lincoln C		4376	1580	530.5	0.482	2188	-78	-1.771
Doncaster R		3466	1239	431.5	0.482	1733	-63	-1.803
Stockport C		4322	1550	530	0.481	2161	-81	-1.874
Carlisle U		3306	1182	402	0.479	1653	-69	-2.087
Cambridge U		1586	537	222	0.479	793	-34	-2.144
Walsall		3938	1403	479.5	0.478	1969	-87	-2.197
Torquay		3374	1160	446	0.476	1687	-81	-2.401
Oxford U		2020	679	282	0.476	1010	-49	-2.426
York C		3052	1062	387	0.475	1526	-77	-2.523
Barnet		724	241	100	0.470	362	-22	-2.970
Leeds City		380	140	38.5	0.470	190	-12	-3.026
Cheltenham T		552	178	81	0.469	276	-17	-3.080
Rochdale		3702	1252	480.5	0.468	1851	-119	-3.201
Dagenham & R		184	64	22	0.467	92	-6	-3.261
Aldershot		2484	837	324	0.467	1242	-81	-3.261
Chester C		3026	1023	388.5	0.466	1513	-102	-3.354
Wigan Borough		412	145	47	0.466	206	-14	-3.398
Leyton O		4106	1379	532.5	0.466	2053	-142	-3.446
Darlington		3614	1233	445.5	0.464	1807	-129	-3.556
Exeter C		3535	1175	464	0.464	1767.5	-129	-3.635
Scarborough		582	193	76.5	0.463	291	-22	-3.694
Nelson		412	154	36.5	0.462	206	-16	-3.762
Hereford U		1360	439	188.5	0.461	680	-53	-3.860
Maidstone Utd		134	43	18.5	0.459	67	-6	-4.104
Crewe A		3816	1303	444.5	0.458	1908	-161	-4.206
Southport		2200	723	284	0.458	1100	-93	-4.227
Macclesfield T		644	204	90.5	0.457	322	-28	-4.270
Burton Alb		92	29	13	0.457	46	-4	-4.348
Boston U		230	72	33	0.457	115	-10	-4.348
Hartlepool U		3714	1261	428	0.455	1857	-168	-4.523
Bootle		22	9	1	0.455	11	-1	-4.545
Workington		1194	385	155	0.452	597	-57	-4.774
Accrington Stanley		1650	587	158	0.452	825	-80	-4.848
Newport Co		2672	888	312.5	0.449	1336	-136	-5.071
Halifax T		3068	967	395	0.444	1534	-172	-5.606
Kidderminster H		230	72	29.5	0.441	115	-14	-5.870
Barrow		1924	624	207	0.432	962	-131	-6.809
New Brighton		884	287	93.5	0.430	442	-62	-6.957
Glossop NE		618	197	68	0.429	309	-44	-7.120
Aberdare Athletic		252	78	30	0.429	126	-18	-7.143
Durham City		286	95	27	0.427	143	-21	-7.343
Accrington FC		122	35	17	0.426	61	-9	-7.377
Gainsborough T		564	175	59	0.415	282	-48	-8.511
Merthyr Town		420	115	53	0.400	210	-42	-10.000
Darwen		232	75	13.5	0.381	116	-28	-11.853
Middlesbrough Ironopolis		28	8	2	0.357	14	-4	-14.286
Loughborough		158	34	20	0.342	79	-25	-15.823
Thames		84	20	8.5	0.339	42	-14	-16.071
Rotherham Town		88	24	4	0.318	44	-16	-18.182
Northwich Vic		50	12	2.5	0.290	25	-11	-21.000

¹Shut up. Not even close – .513 (10,272/9,374), which is good for 6th behind Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Cards and Red Sox. Eat that, Southsiders.

²That’s not strictly true. I was disappointed to see I’d missed out Burton United/Swifts and Albion while I decided what to do with them and ended up forgetting to replace them in the last post.

20 – Four Seasons In One Day – Post 35

Every time I think about how I’d like Town to end up, I always think of Bolton Wanderers. They were always high up in the second tier and, though their Premiership venture did work out, there was always the feel that if it didn’t, they’d be back battling at the top of the Championship the next season – a top 30 club, in other words – and that’s how I see Town, really – albeit with little justification since I started watching them.

I want to see my team win games, and it doesn’t really matter, I don’t think, what level it is. I’d be happy to have a really good season in Division 3 this year, but I’d rather have two pretty good years at Tier 3 level than one boom and one bust year – build slowly, lest your balloon bursteth.

My query in this case, then, is which teams have been most successful, year on year, at whatever level they’re at. Logic, for me, would dictate that the teams who have been in the top flight the longest would probably be highest – struggling and relegation seasons would count against you (though a relegation could easily be balanced by a flying promotion, or a few steady years in the tier below). What I’ve done, then, is take every team’s average league season (ranging from 1 season (Stevenage) to 112 (Everton and West Brom amongst 10 others)) and panned it out over the ‘perfect’ 46 game season.

Remember, at this point, that 70ish points is ‘generally’ good enough for a playoff spot, and make judgements from there. As you can see from this table, your Mighty Terriers finish 20th out of 133 teams in this system, which was a surprise for me – I expected a finish somewhere far closer to the bottom.

Town’s position is just something to be proud of, I think. I’d like to think we might get above QPR next season (goal difference?) and possibly Wigan, too (the latter more likely than the former, due to the minimal effect you can have on 84 seasons of results on the strength of one. By comparison, there’s no reason we might not pull away from Brighton, Preston and Plymouth – I would hope Town should have a better season than they all do – Sheffield Wednesday? Well, they’re the team to beat. It will also be interesting to see if Crawley shoot straight to the top – I wouldn’t be surprised.

But look around – there’s some perennially big teams hovering around on their reputations – Everton, Villa, Manchester City, Sunderland and Wolves – all on 68 points (this is – I suspect – because so many seasons in the early days had a heavy swing of results being home wins; that many home wins would lead to a high points tally). Amongst them are the minnows, the New Brighton Tower and Stalybridge types who had decent seasons back when there was very few games, and as a result, pan out quite well.

Meanwhile, its no surprise to see that the lowest 112 season representatives are Notts County – their fortunes have been mixed to say the least over the last few years.

There’s other interesting outcomes, too – Coventry’s perennial struggle against the drop leaves them level with York; Stockport’s 100th league season will have to wait, while above them, Dagenham and Aldershot will try to impress.

The lowest placed current team is Accrington Stanley, though that includes their former guise (that was difficult decision making – essentially, provided there was no merger, I went with them being the same club; except in the case of Leeds City, which seemed to benefit their successors.

So there you go; constantly do well, and you too could be Liverpool or Manchester Utd. What didn’t you know already.

78.5 – Lee Clark And The Development Of A Manager – Post 34

Despite Lee Clark having been managing Town for two and a half years or so, his critics remain unconvinced by his record; the arguments are well-known, and summarised as such – he could have done better with the considerable resources at his disposal; the counter-argument is that he’s done pretty well anyway; personally, I can see both sides. I don’t think he’s been anything like bad enough for Dean Hoyle to sack him, but I’ve been a little underwhelmed, if not with recent results, with performances when I’ve seen.  

There is a third way. The League Managers association run a table of managers according to the performances of their teams, and for the 2010/11 season, Lee Clark was the 9th highest scoring manager on their list. Not bad for someone with only 2½ years experience however you swing it.

That LMA table didn’t really suit my purposes when I thought about Town managers over history; there’s so many more cup competitions now than before, and I couldn’t justify, however I looked, that a victory in a Football League Trophy tie counts even a tenth as much as a victory in a league game. My table, then, only counted league games. I thought about this for a while, and decided that it was unfair on the earlier managers who guided Town to FA Cup Semi-Finals (and even won the thing once upon a time) so I needed to balance that out a bit.

Thus, FA Cup games and League Cup games got a collective ranking (no home or away discrepancy; it doesn’t matter so much, and as much as clean sheets count for nothing, they’ve got to be included, too) of 10 points for a win, and JPT games got ignored because I really can’t justify their presence in this. This, I suppose, favours the managers of the teams outside the top flight, though in theory their game frequency should balance out their game difficulty. I tried it a few ways, and this was the fairest I got¹. The other points I’ll make here is that finals are worth 15/7.5 points. Managing in a final deserves extra kudos and, for the few Town have played in, I don’t see it’ll make any great shakes to the figures – even fewer have been won, of course. I also neglected to include the FA Cup Qualification rounds from 1910. Sorry, if you feel they should be factored in.

The results aren’t entirely surprising. There’s a small bunch near the top of very successful interim managers, headed by (look away now, Len Shackleton) the Board of Directors in 1921 (two games, two wins) and two stints of Gerry Murphy. Factoring out those managers who have been in charge of fewer than 10 games, we get a more accurate picture.

I was surprised to see Cecil Potter at the top of the list, but it makes a lot of sense after reasoning out that he largely inherited Herbert Chapman’s team and in his only season, led them to success. Ambrose Langley, too, oversaw a lot of success, as did, of course, Herbert Chapman himself. Then…Lee Clark. Ahead – importantly – of Neil Warnock. Ahead – interestingly – of Mick Buxton and (I guess Lee Clark would enjoy this himself) Bill Shankly.

Another feature worth noting is the improvement of Ian Greaves (albeit from only 12 games) from his first spell to his second, and of Peter Jackson from his first spell to his second; its also relatively useful to note that Mick Wadsworth, Stan Ternent and Andy Ritchie are all in the bottom half; which sort of plays out the popular opinion – and its no surprise to see Malcolm Macdonald at the bottom of the list, either.

There is, of course, the caveat that Lee Clark hasn’t actually won anything. Two good season in the third tier, with a third at a level his team could be expected to do well in to come is all he can put on his CV yet; the real test, I think its pretty obvious, will come when he has to go up a level, something Buxton had to deal with, and something Horton interited (Warnock, of course, left before he got chance). The table proves this to me; I’m happier that Town are in good hands now than I was before I worked it all out. Lee Clark, as ever, I wish you all the best. Top this table next season, and I’ll be absolutely delighted.

¹I’m not 100% sold on it, but I don’t see its possible to weight it any other way without some sort of ‘league position disparity’ at the time of cup games and I can’t see how that would fit in except in an analogue (stepped) system – maybe 15 points for beating someone 50 places above, 14 for 45 and so on; that would prove VERY difficult to obtain and work out, particularly for the earlier games. There’s also the budget issue, but that would be impossible to cover for every period of the club’s history.

19 – Starcodes and Barcodes – Post 32

A friend of mine raised a question by e-mail the other day that I only knew half the answer for.

He wondered who were the last team to win the top division wearing blue and white stripes. My initial thought was ‘Sunderland were the last wearing stripes, but there’s only a couple of blues and whites it could be’. Turns out it was one of the others. This got me thinking about the scarcity of stripey teams winning the top flight, and I wondered if it held firm throughout history. Certainly this year, there’s one red, one blue, one hoops and one (traditionally) striped shirted team¹ celebrating with a lovely trophy. I also wondered whether we could include Chelsea’s shirt as striped, because it has – recently – had stripes on it; the pedant in me said ‘yes’, but the realist said ‘don’t be such a pedant’. So I won’t.

Here’s a brief overview of kit types winning the various leagues, broken down into percentages – I have taken the kit to be the kits at the time; for a lot of them, they’re traditional, but for others, there’s wee descriptions if they’re not what you expect, though if you’re the kind of person to be surprised by a Rotherham kit from 1950/51, then you probably should look for alternative methods of surprise (viewing daylight, for example).

Firstly, and to set this article into its proper context, Huddersfield Town recently released a new kit. It has blue and white stripes, but white sleeves; to this date, the club have won five divisional titles, each time wearing blue and white stripes – which carried onto the sleeves. That’s not to say the new shirt will prove unsuccessful, just that teams wearing unusual designs have seldom been champions in the past (though the Wigan shirt of 1996/97 was certainly unusual). Anyway. Onto the numbers.

Looking at 112 champions of the Premiership/Division 1, there is an overwhelming trend.

Halves	3²	2.68%
Plain	69	61.61%
Sleeves	21	18.75%
Stripes	19	16.96%

Knowing that the last team wearing stripes was Sunderland, some seventy-odd years ago, there’s been a massive swing in favour of ‘plain’ kits; indeed, 16 of the last 20 titles have been claimed by the plain shirt brigade; in the shapes of Manchester Utd, Chelsea and Leeds. Arsenal’s three titles (sleeves) and Blackburn’s halves make up the numbers. Block colours are certainly the way to go in the top flight, and of those, 39 of the 69 titles have been won by teams in plain red; numbers being made up by blue (14), white (9), gold (3 – but within a 6 year period), sky blue (2) and salmon (1) – step up the Everton team of 1890/91.

Halves	4	3.73%
Plain	64	59.81%
Sleeves	6	5.61%
Stripes	27	25.23%
Hoops	3	2.80%
Penguin	1	0.93%
Bar	1	0.93%
Sash	1	0.93%

There is only 107 years of 2nd division history to work with, but again, there’s a swing towards the plain – 64 of the victorious teams wearing shirts of the one colour – but the stripes and the plains are closer together (the sway being more than made up for by the sleeves only racking up six titles in Tier 2. At this point, I ought to explain that the penguin shirts are the plain shirts with a ‘v’ on the front of them, largely favoured by Birmingham City (or Brescia, if you swing that way) on this occasion in the 1920/21 season – they have returned to the design a few times, but without matching that success; meanwhile the ‘bar’ refers to a plain shirt with a single stripe on it – generally horizontal (Middlesbrough) but they do exist vertically – I suppose Ajax would wear a loose version of that. The sash is a relatively unused shirt variety – though we had two, I think this season; one throwback to this one – Crystal Palace – and one Manchester City away shirt. Its basically a plain shirt with a two-stripe diagonal across it.

Colour breakdown for the 64 plain shirts is as follows. Blue (17), White (17), Red (13), Sky Blue (8), Yellow (4), Claret (2), Gold (2), Tangerine (1) – you’ll be unsurprised to note that that’s Blackpool.

Hoops	3	5.88%
Plain	26	50.98%
Sleeves	7	13.72%
Stripes	14	27.45%
Bar	1	1.96%

The disparity between plain and stripes is even narrower in the fourth tier as the top – with the sleeved shirts making a bit of a comeback; Millwall, in this instance (and surprisingly for me) are the ‘bar’ it was white on blue in 1962/63. Colour breakdown of the plain shirts in Division 4 goes as follows – Blue (10), Yellow (6), Red (4), White (3), Gold, Green, Navy (1). Its interesting to see how the plain red shirts – though there is no shortage of teams in predominantly red shirts (Morecambe, Stevenage, Swindon, Orient…) dominance is a lot less in the lower divisions, and the leading teams are in blue – albeit plain blue.

Halves	1	1.89%
Hoops	3	5.66%
Plain	35	66.03%
Quarters	1	1.89%
Sleeves	5	9.43%
Stripes	8	15.09%

To the slightly thorny third division, and I’ve split it into two; one for a unified third, and one for the (combined) North and South versions. There have been 53 incarnations of this, won most recently by Brighton in stripes (hurrah!), though they beat Southampton in stripes (hurrah!) and Huddersfield in stripes (hurrah, though also boo) into 2nd and 3rd place. Vintage year for verticals it was. That hasn’t been borne out over the fullness of time though, as no other shirt variety has even reached double figures of victories. The breakdown of plain shirts is as follows; White (10), Yellow (5), Blue (8), Gold (3), Red (3), Green (2), Navy Blue (2), Claret (1), Sky Blue (1). It becomes interesting (to me) that the plain shirt colours get so much more varied as one goes down the leagues – obviously, we know there’s teams like Plymouth in green, Norwich in yellow and Coventry in sky blue, but that they’ve all tasted lower league success at one time or other is good.

Halves	1	1.67%
Hoops	7	11.69%
Penguin	1	1.67%
Plain	27	45.09%
Quarters	1	1.67%
Sleeves	6	10.00%
Stripes	17	28.39%

The 60 years of North and South divide as follows – the widest variety so far – and a pretty good performance by the stripes; this division is also the only division that has seen stripes of three colours – horizontally, the red, black and yellow of Bradford Park Avenue in 1927/28. The plain colour breakdown is thus; Red (10), White (8), Blue (5), Green, Gold, Navy Blue, Yellow (1 each). So we’re back to as we were. In all four divisions, teams in plain shirts have been more successful – and the gap isn’t even close a lot of the time. Now, while I’m sure this doesn’t have any bearing on whether, for example, Birmingham City decide to adopt the penguin on their shirts, it might mean that for a teams who are slightly more transient in terms of stripes (Hull City and Gillingham spring to mind) would fall into a bigger category if they decided to go plain instead of stripey.

I maybe ought to point out at this juncture, that there is a lot more teams playing in plain shirts than there is stripes, as well, so it is to be expected that they lead the way, but I’m surprised to note quite how dominant the plain shirt has been in all the divisions, and how the different colours have had different levels of success at different levels. Anyway, here’s the grand (383) totals.

Bar	2	0.522%
Halves	9	2.349%
Hoops	16	4.176%
Penguin	2	0.522%
Plain	221	57.681%
Quarters	2	0.522%
Sash	1	0.261%
Sleeves	45	11.745%
Stripes	85	22.185%

What can I say? If you want a divisional winner, more than 50% of the time, you ought to look for a plain shirt. Sad days for those in stripes, but worse news for Crystal Palace if they keep the sash. Liverpool, despite two titles in halves, probably did the right thing, too.

¹Brighton’s 2010/11 kit may well go down in seaside folklore, but it was a bloody ugly jobby, for damned surest mustard.

²All three being Blackburn Rovers.

Thousands of thanks to http://www.historicalkits.co.uk for my information.

4 – Chasing A Winner – Post 30

It was suggested to me today that Town would have won or have had a better chance of winning more of the eight drawn home games they had this season if they’d pushed on a bit when level, and not looked to have settled for a draw when level.

 So I thought I’d see if the numbers checked out. Unfortunately, in terms of sample size, there was only three games that had a ‘decisive’ goal – the other five draws were 0-0, so we’ve got a relatively small sample size.

 Anyway, this is what I found out. Town drew eight home games, and during those games, they averaged a shot every 6.79 minutes; meanwhile their opponents averaged a shot every 13.09 minutes – almost half as often (that’s a combination of shots on and off-target, as you can see in the table here). 

Against Bournemouth, Leyton Orient and Brentford (note the red theme there), though, Town were left chasing a late winner – having (at most) 22 minutes to do so. In this situation, the amount of shots per minute grew even more disparate; Town averaged an attempt every 4 minutes, and Town’s opponents one every 36 minutes… they had one.

 Clearly, then, Town did push on for a win in all of those games – particularly Bournemouth, with 3 attempts in the 3 minutes they had left in the match, but it came to no avail. The flaw here was probably, I’d have to say, the difference between the first and third columns; Town averaged 6.75 shots on target per match, and 6.5 off target. If those numbers were skewed in favour of the shots on target, I think we’d be looking at a few more goals, and a few fewer draws.

 What we aren’t looking at, I think we can say, is a team who were ‘settling’ for a draw. Unable to get a win, perhaps, but not settling for a draw.

18,735 – Glory Round The Fields Of Leeds Road? – Post 15

On 17^th March 2011, Huddersfield Town will pass a landmark – it will be the 37,470^th day of the club’s existence. That’s impressive stuff, I’m sure you’ll agree. However, this post is about something that is only implied in that figure. The incident that occurred exactly half-way through the club’s history – on the 18,735^th day.

Unless you’ve got a mind like a pin-sharp calendar, you might need some help working out the date I’m talking about. 1^st December 1959.

From a Huddersfield Town perspective, the date probably doesn’t resound with as much importance as it does for another club, who are still reaping the benefits to this day. On 1^st December 1959, Bill Shankly took control of Liverpool Football Club, and the 17^th March 2011 will make that date the exact mid-point of Town’s history. What better time to consider, then, all the ‘what might have beens’ that Bill Shankly leaving the club left us with.

The Liverpool that Shankly joined were by no means minnows, but were in a slump the likes of which one never expects of a club of Liverpool’s standards (what was the first trophy Shankly won? The 2^nd Division title – but they were still getting attendances of 30,000 a week). The Huddersfield Town Shankly left were nothing like minnows; the 1950s were a golden age for the Terriers, unmatched since the 1920s, and since. That last word, that ‘since’ is the basis for this article. I want to know what percentage of Town’s success came in that opening 50%, and what percentage of Liverpool’s came in the closing 50% (of Town’s history rather than their own – Liverpool being formed in 1892). I’m expecting a massive disparity, and I’m relatively sure that the board’s decision not to back Shankly (he wanted to bring in Yeats and St John, he claimed, but wasn’t allowed – imagine a team with St. John, Yeats and Denis Law; they could’ve ruled Europe) can be interpreted as a turning point from which Town have never, quite, recovered. Liverpool, meanwhile, have gone from strength to strength. On which, this post is in no way meant to denigrate Liverpool; simply to show how different the teams’ fortunes have been since 1^st December 1959; they’ve had Heighway on the wing, we’ve had….Baldry.

I’ll start with what was achieved before that date;

	Huddersfield Town	Liverpool
1st Division League Titles	3 (1923/24, 1924/25, 1925/26)	5 (1900/01, 1905/06, 1921/22, 1922/23¹, 1946/47)
1st Division Runners-Up	3 (1926/27, 1927/28, 1933/34)	2 (1898/99, 1909/10)
2nd Division League Titles		3 (1893/94, 1895/96, 1904/05)
2nd Division Runners-Up	2 (1919/20, 1952/53)
FA Cup Winners	1 (1922)
FA Cup Runners-Up	4 (1920, 1928, 1930, 1938)	2 (1914, 1950)
Charity Shield Wins	1² (1922)
Charity Shield Runners-Up		1 (1922)
1st Division Seasons	28	46
2nd Division Seasons	10 (including 1959/60)	9 (including 1959/60)

Now, without any need to be biased, there’s something of a similarity between those two sets of achievements; Liverpool had won two more league titles, but they had an extra 17 years to do that. The seasons spent in the different divisions is probably the biggest disparity, but that’s reasonably explained. Liverpool, when they started, started successfully – they won the Lancashire League in 1892/93, their first season – and took a good team into the Second Division, winning it first time out. Huddersfield were elected to the league on potential, and took six seasons to get to the top – staying there until the 50s once they had. Yes, Liverpool’s average attendance was always around 30,000, and Huddersfield’s lower, but then Liverpool has a higher populated catchment area – which was getting into boom-time at the time.

Then, on 1^st December 1959, the two clubs’ fates were sealed, arguably. (Of course, one could equally argue that it was in the preceding months when Huddersfield’s directors refused to finance the purchase of Ian St John and Ron Yeats to supplement Denis Law that that occurred, as it let Shankly think that maybe the board at Huddersfield weren’t as ambitious as he himself). Bill Shankly joined Liverpool and the rest, although less so than that which came before (chronologically obviously), is history.

	Huddersfield Town	Liverpool
1st Division League Titles	0	13 (1963–64, 1965–66, 1972–73, 1975–76, 1976–77, 1978–79, 1979–80, 1981–82, 1982–83, 1983–84, 1985–86, 1987–88, 1989–90)
1st Division Runners-Up	0	10 (1968–69, 1973–74, 1974–75, 1977–78, 1984–85, 1986–87, 1988–89, 1990–91, 2001–02, 2008–09)
2nd Division League Titles	1 (1969/70)	1 (1961/62)
2nd Division Runners-Up	0	0
4th Division League Titles	1 (1979/80)	0
Playoff Winners	2 (1995 – D3, 2004 – D4)	0
FA Cup Winners	0	7 (1965, 1974, 1986, 1989, 1992, 2001, 2006)
FA Cup Runners-Up	0	6 (1914, 1950, 1971, 1977, 1988, 1996)
League Cup Winners	0 (Best result – semi finals 1968)	7 (1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1995, 2001, 2003)
League Cup Runners-Up		3 (1978, 1987, 2005)
Charity Shield Winners	0	15 (1964 (shared), 1965 (shared), 1966, 1974, 1976, 1977 (shared), 1979, 1980, 1982, 1986 (shared), 1988, 1989, 1990 (shared), 2001, 2006)
Charity Shield Runners-Up	0	5 (1922, 1971, 1983, 1984, 1992, 2002)
European Cup Winners	0	5 (1977, 1978, 1981, 1984, 2005)
European Cup Runners-Up	0	2 (1985, 2007)
UEFA Cup Winners	0	3 (1973, 1976, 2001)
European Cup Winners Cup R-U	0	1 (1966)
World Club Cup Runners-Up	0	3 (1981,1984,2005)
Autoglass Trophy Runners-Up	1 (1994)
First Division Seasons	2	49
Non-First Division Seasons	51	4

Now, in the half of Town’s history since the departure of Bill Shankly there is a very definite disparity between the two. Whilst it no doubt pains Liverpool’s followers never to have reached the final of the Autoglass Trophy, never mind losing it, Huddersfield fans would probably trade that experience, even though it was on penalties and they’d matched Swansea over 120 minutes, for 23 finishes in the top two of the football league. Probably.

Sarcasm aside, the table above is basically a chart of Liverpool’s considerable achievement since the arrival of Bill Shankly, and given the sparsity of Huddersfield Town’s charts there, shows the danger of not backing a manager who is driven to succeed. Who can say that Huddersfield wouldn’t have had the same success as Liverpool had if they’d done what Shankly wanted? Who is to say that the board didn’t consider the offer and decide on its merits that Huddersfield would never be able to pull in 40,000 fans a week, maybe would never be able to repay the considerable investment that St John and Yeats would be.

Put yourself, then, in Dean Hoyle’s shoes; you have a manager who has been pretty well backed so far, and to a decent level of improvement (a click onto any Town messageboard of late would bring a whole host of debates about that) and he asks for more players. What do you do? Do you buy him the player? (Maybe this has already happened – maybe this is how Kevin Kilbane came in on his £13,000 a week wages) Do you tell him that he should be able to get results on the squad he’s already got and risk him moving on and perhaps becoming the next Bill Shankly³? Can you be certain that if you bring in a certain player, success, and crowds (and merchandise sales) would increase? Nobody can complain about what Dean Hoyle has done for Huddersfield Town – promotion or not, there’s few teams at League One level who wouldn’t change places with us, and if promotion is achieved, there’s a number of Championship clubs who would do it gladly. Yes, the likes of Liverpool are light years ahead, but… its not so long Birmingham City were sharing the third division with Huddersfield, and look where they are now.

It would just be nice to see something more recent than 1980 in the ‘things won’ table of that chart.

If that isn’t compelling evidence enough – there’s something else worth looking at, too. Town have played Liverpool 73 times over the course of their 100-odd years, and retain a positive record against the Reds. But look at the split of Pre-December 1959 / Post-December 1959 meetings (obviously, this table is from Town’s viewpoint)

	P	W	D	L	F	A	Win %
Pre 01/12/1959	63	30	14	19	113	95	47.61%
Post 01/12/1959	10	0	3	7	7	21	0%

Obviously the difference in league is apparent in the number of games played, but a 0% win percentage against Liverpool since Bill Shankly left is nothing to write home about. When was the last time Town beat Liverpool? Funnily enough; 28^th November 1959 – some 2 days before Bill Shankly became Liverpool manager.

One more point; in the 51 years before Bill Shankly left Town, there had been 12 managers of the club. In the 51 years since, there have been 26. Liverpool’s tally is as follows; Pre – 8, Post – 11. More, yes, but that figure does include the caretaker management of Ronnie Moran, and the joint Roy Evans/Gerard Houllier experiment as separate from the latter’s own spell. Not a lot of chopping and changing, lots of success. That’s an old argument, though, and there’s no need to rehash it here.

¹The two teams held the league title for 5 years in a row between them here.

²Huddersfield Town may have won more Charity Shields, but did not play in 1924 (Newcastle United), 1925 (Sheffield United) or 1926 (Bolton Wanderers).

³Bill Shankly was not wildly successful with any of his club jobs before Liverpool – not Huddersfield, Carlisle, Workington or Grimsby, though I recommend a read about his time with the Mariners if you get the chance.

1570 seconds – Arsene Wenger’s Red-Tinted Version Of The Truth – Post 11

“I hope [Cesc Fabregas] will not exchange shirts with players who try to kick him for 90 minutes and then say ‘Please can I get your shirt?”

After Sunday’s defeat at the Emirates, Anthony Pilkington reacted angrily about Cesc’s refusal to swap shirts with him, and a little media-furore has kicked up around it. For me, I couldn’t care less whether he swapped shirts; I think Djourou’s a better player, and his is the shirt I’d try and get (though he didn’t play on Sunday, of course). It’s the dismissive and disrespectful tone of Arsene Wenger that grates, and his wholly inaccurate summation of what happened.

 

Firstly, and most importantly, Fabregas was not kicked for 90 minutes. He didn’t feature in the game until (according to the official Arsenal site’s commentary, its 69 minutes)

67 minutes 43 seconds into the game, which was ended after 93 minutes 53 seconds – 26 minutes and 10 seconds¹.

During this 26 minutes, 12 free kicks were awarded – that’s an average of 1 every 130.8 seconds; just over two minutes. That’s quite a high figure, but it was towards the end of quite a tight cup tie, and both teams were pressing forward. Arsenal committed 5 of these, and Huddersfield 7 (including the penalty from which Arsenal scored their winner). So, Arsenal, during this 26 minute period, were fouled once every 224.3 seconds – almost once every four minutes.

This 26 minute period alone contained half of the fouls Huddersfield committed during the game; that must support Mr Wenger, surely? Cesc played for around a quarter of the game, but 50% of the Arsenal free-kicks were in that quarter-game. Arsenal committed 12 fouls during the game, which balances favourably with Huddersfield’s 14, but there isn’t a vast difference. It wasn’t a dirty game, by any means.

Of the seven fouls committed on Arsenal players during the 26 minutes of Cesc’s involvement, the player who was fouled is as follows.

Fabregas (68:54, 83:48, 93:53)

Rosicky (69:49, 89:27)

Koscielny (90:12)

Bendner (85:53)

Fabregas, then, the player who was dictating the play, ‘pulling the strings’ as the Arsenal website would have it, was fouled 3 times in 26 minutes. Once every 523.3 seconds – once every 8.72 (every 8¾ minutes). Now, if I was pushing on to a tired team, trying to pull strings and guide my team through to the fifth round of the FA Cup, I’d expect to bumped, bashed and kicked every time I touched the ball, as my opposition tried to stop me by fair means and foul.

By contrast, Alan Lee was involved in lots of free-kickery during the whole 90 minute period (he also scored). Here’s a summary of his involvement.

FKs conceded    (00:19 – Koscielny, 57:24 – Koscielny,

FKs awarded      (39:26 – Squillaci, 73:39 – Koscielny, 76:41 – Gibbs, 82:30 – Koscielny).

So, Arsenal conceded four free-kicks for fouls on Alan Lee. That’s one ever 23.5 minutes give-or-take. Note the 50/50 split of fouls by and for Koscielny and Alan Lee. ‘True centre-forward duel’ is probably how that would be reported.

I’ve established, then, that Fabregas was fouled more often in his 26 minutes than any other player, but one foul every 8¾ minutes isn’t ‘kicking someone off the park’ in anyone’s book.

The other factor that Arsene Wenger mentions is to specify that one particular player has been kicking Fabregas off the park – the one who asked him for his shirt, one Anthony Pilkington. Pilkington’s contribution to the disciplinary record of the game is as follows.

FKs conceded    (30:09 – Gibbs)

FKs awarded      (90:12 – Koscielny)

I think we can tell from those figures that Anthony Pilkington wasn’t kicking Cesc Fabregas off the park. Pilkington’s booking was unsporting behaviour, not a foul, and any contact he had with Fabregas, and any Fabregas had with him, was judged to be legal.

Arsene Wenger, then, probably needs to modify his statement.

“I hope [Cesc Fabregas] will not exchange shirts with players who don’t foul him once during 26 minutes 10 seconds and then say ‘Please can I get your shirt?’ after being booked for the same reason as he has”.

¹I will round this figure down to 26 minutes for reference’s sake, but anything worked out statistically will use 26’10, or 1570 seconds.

17.94 – Average Shirt Numbers – Post 10

Watching Arsenal last night, something occurred to me. I blame Nicklas Bendtner. His 52 shirt, and the 53 of Wojciech Szczeny are two of the higher numbered shirts we see regularly in England, and illustrate the move away, not just from the first 11 (I guess Arsenal haven’t fielded an honest 1-11 since long before the days of Thierry Henry, who was always 14) but from the squad of 25, too. I know Italy has always allowed differences – Pagliuca wore 77, for example – and there’s a long line of famous players who preferred to wear 25 (Zola, Kanu, Adebayor) which would push the average shirt number up. At Huddersfield Town, though, there’s never been a huge squad, and the higher numbers are, as at Arsenal, generally players who join late, or come through the youth system – Liam Ridehalgh’s 29, for example.

 

Is this a good thing or a bad thing? We’re always told that a settled team is a good thing to have, particularly at League One level, and that must indicate a preference for the team that starts the year as the first team to stay as the first team for the duration of the season, give or take – allowing for new signings, and injuries – a few different faces. If that is the case, a 1-11 team averages 6.00, obviously enough, and Town’s average shirt number of the starters, up to 2000/01, was 6.00.

 

After that date, though, we’ve seen a world of difference. I ought to add a precursor to the Town squad statistics. I think they’ve actually been skewed by circumstance in certain ways. That circumstance is, surprisingly, the retirement of Ian Gray. His retention of the number 1 shirt despite starting infrequently ensured Matt Glennon wore 27, which he kept during his stay at Town, and then Alex Smithies couldn’t wear 1 because he wasn’t first choice, until he became so and started wearing 1 (last season); I have done a separate tally to account for that, but that’s just for interest rather than to draw conclusions.

 

	Total Nos	Total / 11	Average
2000-01	6673	136.18	12.38
2001-02	11970	210.00	19.09
2002-03	7886	157.72	14.34
2003-04	8492	157.26	14.30
2004-05	7375	147.50	13.41
2005-06	5975	119.50	10.86
2006-07	7052	143.92	13.08
2007-08	7249	136.77	12.43
2008-09	7766	155.32	14.12
2009-10	6904	125.53	11.41
2010-11	5130	197.31	17.94

 

I was surprised (we’re looking at that figure on the right (2010/11 correct up to today) for the average shirt number of a first team player).

 

I knew we’d had the Team Of 35, so I knew there’d be a few years when the number was pretty high, but for 10 of the 11 seasons since Town moved to squad numbers to be over 11 was a real surprise. Its worth noting that the two most successful seasons – 2003/04, 2009/10 – were the two with the shirt numbers being the lowest – which is certainly a nod to the consistency of the more successful teams (this is particularly impressive when taking into account that Jordan Rhodes (17) and Anthony Pilkington (19) both played more than 50 games last season, of 55 in total) in terms of team selection.

 

Overall, though, the whole thing seems to be a little bit of a mish-mash so any conclusions drawn from it would need backing up some other way. This season’s figure being so high already at 17.9 does suggest, to me, at least that Lee Clark’s been relying on loan players a little too much – Pilkington is in the 11 shirt this year; it is inflated a little by the unforeseen injury to Gary Naysmith, though. His 3 has been replaced by 29 quite often this time around.

 

The Matt Glennon Anomaly

	Total Nos	Total / 11	Average
2006-07	5778	117.92	10.72
2007-08	6414	121.02	11.00
2008-09	7220	144.40	13.13

Look at these figures from 2006-2009 when Town didn’t have a number one – suddenly something else become more obvious to see; Ken Davy’s non-injection of funds into the club. The players that were available were by and large not supplemented by loans – 06/07 and 07/08 particularly bad in that respect, clearly. This sways my opinion a little. Knowing how difficult these team were to watch, and seeing how they were left to fend for themselves without augmentation, I think I’d have to say I support improvement to a new level each transfer window, which would make the exact figure I’d prefer being a little higher than the under 11 I’d thought originally.

49 – Unlikely Comeback? – Post 9

After my bubble of Johnstone’s Paint optimism was so cruelly pricked last week, I dusted myself off and wondered how I could fight back with numbers. I could cut a number seven out of wood, fashion it down, and use it as a boomerang to throw at Carlisle players in the return leg, but that would involve a lot of sanding and shaping which is a bit too much like hard work for my taste.

Or I could do this. I could see how good (or bad) Town have been when in credit or debit by goals in two leg ties they’ve played. Now, when I worked these out, I was disappointed to discover I’d only been to both legs of a two-legged tie on two occasions, both of which were over 10 years ago. In those games, Town led after the first leg in Mansfield and drew at home (there was some sort of news furore over the aged Tony Ford in that home leg) and drew at home to Everton before losing in a game they led and saw Marco Materazzi sent off in.

So I’ve made myself a big list of all the times Town have played two legs; these are in three competitions – the first, the League Cup, which had a two legged first round for a long time, and even a two legged semi-final for Town a long long time ago; the second, the Football League Trophy, which has two-legged semi finals of which Town have won one and lost one before the current mid-point against Carlisle. The third, and the ones I remember the best, are the two-legged playoff semi-finals. I know for a fact that Town have never won a play-off game at home, so I’m not expecting much favour from those. Those three competitions add up to 49 two-legged ties, and Carlisle is the 50th, with a split of 2 Football League Trophy, 5 Playoff and 42 League Cup.

Overall Tie Results first, then.

        P49  W28  D00  L21

 

Of those ties, there has been a split as follows between the location of the first leg of the tie. Home – 27; Away – 22, so Town have been slightly better than winning all of their home ties; it does takes into account both random drawing and the home/away seeding system of the playoffs. But that’s all pretty much by the by. I want to know what happened after the first legs of all those ties, and how Town reacted to it. Here’s the first leg results.

        P49  W22  D14  L13

 

Decent record in those games, then, remembering that a few of them are against teams such as Arsenal (1967/68, 1986/87, 1993/94) that Town wouldn’t be expected to beat anyway. That gives us half the story, then. A first leg draw sets both teams up well – the away team needs to win, the home team needs to win and the pressure is cranked up a little bit – the draws don’t especially interest me here; they’re balanced, whoever they’re against. It’s the wins and the losses that interest me. 22 and 13 aren’t a massive sample size, but they’re enough to work on. So, of the 22 games Town have held a lead going into the 2nd leg, this is the outcome.

        P22  W06  D07  L09

 

Lost 9! That’s more than I was expecting. Those 9 defeats have contributed to 4 eliminations from competitions (in this case, all in the league cup)

1982/83 R2 v Brighton & HA                1-0 (h)   2-0 (a)   1-2 (agg)
1995/96 R2 v Barnsley                     2-0 (h)   4-0 (a)   2-4 (agg)
1997/98 R2 v West Ham U                   1-0 (h)   3-0 (a)   1-3 (agg)
2000/01 R1 v Oldham Ath                   0-1 (a)   0-2 (h)   1-2 (agg)

 

All of those except one Town won their home leg only to see their opposition make better use of home advantage. 2000/01 was a dark time for the club. The reverse of those games, then, is the 13 games that Town have trailed after one leg. These are the ones like the experience we’re having against Carlisle at the moment. What sort of form do they have in those. The full record of second legs Town start one or more goals down is like this. P13 W5 D4 L4 More wins than losses. That’s not so bad. Three of those five wins have been enough to see Town qualify to the next round of their competition. That’s 60% of the times Town win a second leg after losing a first, they win it by enough to qualify. If only it weren’t four goals deficit, eh? Those three in full?

    1979/80 R2 v Grimsby Town               0-1 (a)   4-1 (h)   4-2 (agg)
    1991/92 R1 v Darlington                 0-1 (a)   4-0 (h)   4-1 (agg)
    1994/95 R1 v Scunthorpe                 1-2 (a)   3-0 (h)   4-2 (agg)

 

There is, then, precedent for coming back, but only from one goal down. However, in all the comebacks, Town have ended up with four goals. That will have to be surpassed to beat Carlisle. All the evidence points to Carlisle going to Wembley. Even a cursory look at the Football League Trophy Semi Finals over the years doesn’t really fill you with much hope.

Tw0 teams have come from behind to win FL Trophy Semi Finals, outlined below

    1992/93 Wigan Ath v Stockport County -  2-1 (a)  2-0 (h)  3-2 (agg)
    1996/97 Peterborough v Colchester U  -  2-0 (a)  3-0 (h)  3-2 (agg)

 

This, then, all points to bad news for Town; they’ll need to do something the team has never done and has never been done in the competition before. Come back from more than two goals down after a first leg.

However, we all know that four goal leads aren’t all they’re cracked up to be, don’t we?